What Will the Telecoms Market Look Like in 2015

So we are just over one month into 2015 and it is already looking like it will be an interesting year in the telecoms market. Apple have managed to start two more law cases so no change there. They have also announced record profits. The CEO of Blackberry has demanded developers should be made to produce apps for his devices. Bit of a Stalinist approach to the market – you will build them even if no one wants them. This from a company that would never let anyone near their software – chickens coming home to roost.

Then it looks like all change in the UK mobile market with BT buying EE and O2 merging / being bought by 3. So what will this mean to consumers and businesses over the rest of the forthcoming year. It does always assume that Ofcom will allow there to be only three mobile operators in the UK when they have publicly stated they want four. An interesting challenge for the new head to find in her already bulging in-tray. I think she will allow it given the number of MVNOs that now exist who will be classed as quasi operators. After all you can pick up a mobile contract with your weekly shop in Tesco’s who often offer very cheap sim free phones with clubcard points thrown in.

It was all started by BT wanting to join the quad players (phone, broadband, mobile and TV) in the residential market. Following the launch of BT Sport they were just missing the mobile element having got rid of O2 many years ago. Having decided they didn’t want them back and EE were a better bet, they would be in a position to compete with Virgin. Sky have quickly responded with an announcement that it will launch a mobile service next – surprise surprise in conjunction with O2.

That leaves a few companies sitting on the edges of the dance floor looking at who’s left to partner up with before the evening is over. Most notably TalkTalk and Vodafone is that the next marriage made in heaven or would it be out of necessity?

That potentially would create four companies targeting the quad play domestic market in what is a price sensitive market and probably in a race to the bottom. The domestic broadband market is evidence of that where prices and one could argue service/product quality has fallen dramatically.

With all this focus on the domestic market both in terms of time and resources will the business consumer suffer. For the suppliers which will be the most lucrative to focus on – that will determine their priorities. For some businesses the potential of a single supplier may be attractive whilst others on principle do not like all their eggs in one basket. It should be noted that integration will take some time and businesses anticipating a single contact point for faults will be disappointed. BT do not offer it yet so expecting them to merge EE’s support into their existing centres quickly is being a tad optimistic.

Also of interest will be how the cultures and approaches of the combined companies in the various merging will work out. For example 3 have been ahead of the market in extending the mobile packages to overseas countries without charge. I am sure some companies with large roaming bills would welcome this change as the business providers continue to make large portions of their profits in this area.

Certainly I think businesses should be wary of making long term commitments until the dust has settled and they know what and more importantly who they are signing up with. The company they sign with may look very different by the end of the year.